Monday, January 12, 2009

Demand for development versus supply discussed by local people

Honeymoon / Demand‏
From: on behalf of Gary Ault (
Sent: Mon 1/12/09 9:21 PM
To: Northwest Arkansas List (
I don't know anything about measuring real estate demand either. From a lay perspective it seems that demand would be linked directly with job creation or loss. You could possibly link the cost of the house to the salary of the created or lost job.

Chief of Staff:
It has been announced that Don Marr is the new chief of staff. I doubt anyone is surprised. The job was created for him and he is qualified. I'll let it go until the city starts signing contracts with Haliburton - oops I mean HR Factor.

--- On Sun, 1/11/09, William Goliff wrote:
From: William Goliff
Subject: Re: Honeymoon without a mate
To:, "Northwest Arkansas List" , "Barbara Moorman"
Date: Sunday, January 11, 2009, 12:53 PM

Hello Barbara,

Thank you for a very concisely stated position on this issue. I appreciate your position and think it is a very important one. City and county planning should use this environmental study to map out future development of the area. A demand study, as opposed to a supply study, does not tell you where to put the defined need, it only tells you what the need is. Land use is an entirely separate topic. Exellent examples of land use may be seen in Europe where they do a lot of in-building. In-building is where the city fathers set the perimeter of the city and you may only build within that perimeter.

Companies that do demand studies are KPMG, Pyramid, Booz Allen Hamilton, and others.

I don't believe there has been any demand studies for the NWA area. If you know of one, please let me know.

Bill Goliff

--- On Sun, 1/11/09, Barbara Moorman wrote:
From: Barbara Moorman
Subject: Re: Honeymoon without a mate
To:, "Northwest Arkansas List"
Date: Sunday, January 11, 2009, 11:06 AM

I know nothing at all about economics or profits from property or construction.
That said, it seems to me that environmental studies, evaluation of what the
area's natural environment can give up while continuing to function as part
of a natural system... it seems to me that this should preceed an evaluation of
"demand". I would fear that a "demands" study might simply
chalk up what "demand" will be over a certain number of years and
acres. Until the past year or less, many experts predicted "demand"
would be intense and long-lived. Now we see the experts weren't up to their
task. (I have no idea what the 6 or so qualified companies referred to may have
been predicting... perhaps they were more accurate than the run of the mill
economist.) We do see however that a few experts, largely ignored, in fields
other than economics and development, predicted -- since the late 1960's,
actually -- that funny weather could result from encouraging "demand"
and acceding to it.

Still, I applaud recognition that there hasn't been adequate local analysis
of demands, their causes, and their effects.

----- Original Message ----- From: "Stephen Vallus"

To: "Northwest Arkansas List" ;
"Jeff Erf" ;
Sent: Sunday, January 11, 2009 10:22 AM
Subject: Re: Honeymoon without a mate

> This is NOT good news.
> Not surprised about the bankers but for 1/6 of our local economy which is
based in the so-called real estate business and NO one knows how to assemble the
required empirical data?
> Easy to bang on the City for conflicts of interest (present company
excepted) but this does not explain the dearth of data in academia.
> Can't quit my day job, but to be continued!
> One of the first probs. is, of course, is how to fund the thing. There
seem to be a lot of folks who may not want to know the answers since our image
of *getting back to normal* may be shattered thereby.
> Really appreciate this info.
> --- On Sat, 1/10/09, William Goliff wrote:
>> From: William Goliff
>> Subject: Honeymoon without a mate
>> To: "Northwest Arkansas List" ,
"Jeff Erf"
>> Date: Saturday, January 10, 2009, 6:04 PM
>> Seems to me that the City of Fayetteville is doing half the
>> job by reacting to developer requests without concern for
>> demand. This is the approach the Skyline Report uses. It
>> presents only half the story, leaving the developer and the
>> financiers to work out the demand side. And, they
>> don't! County planning would like to see a demand
>> study as would UofA, but neither has the skill to do the
>> study. There are at least 6 companies on the planet that
>> could do such a study as well as several universities.
>> I'd like to see the UofA develop a curriculum in this
>> area.
>> With a demand study in hand, it would become much easier to
>> do long range planning bc the growth models needed would be
>> at hand. Demand studies are not easy and it takes a highly
>> refined skill set to do one, and they need to be updated
>> frequently, about every 3 years or so. Demand study
>> results would help the city and its developers better
>> predict the needs of the community and the timing of these
>> needs.
>> The UofA, county planning, and myself sat down many months
>> ago to see if we could get a demand study going. We are
>> still searching for an adequate model to start with. There
>> are several on the Internet but none come close to a
>> starting place. I've asked the FHLB to see if they can
>> find one. They've been looking for about a year with
>> no results. I'm sure there are several of these at
>> universities that would be a good start though I have not
>> located one yet.
>> With around a $1B at stake in NWA, I'd expect the
>> bankers to fund a demand study. I have not found any
>> bankers that know what a demand study is. I think it is a
>> question of education bc all the market presentation
>> I've seen in NWA have been supply studies. And, a
>> supply study tells you nothing about demand.
>> If you know of a demand model that might fit NWA, please
>> let me know.
>> --- On Sat, 1/10/09, Jeff Erf
>> wrote:
>> From: Jeff Erf
>> Subject: Re: Honeymoon Over?
>> To: "Northwest Arkansas List"
>> Date: Saturday, January 10, 2009, 11:47 AM
>> >Gary Ault wrote:
>> >Does Fayetteville really need a Chief of Staff?
>> For all practical purposes, Gary Dumas was Mayor
>> Coody's Chief of Staff
>> (see below). And now that he's gone, he should
>> probably be replaced.
>> Northwest Arkansas Times - November 21, 2004
>> ʽSuper divisionʼ is reason behind cityʼs
>> restructuring
>> BY ADAM WALLWORTH Northwest Arkansas Times
>> [snip]
>> Last week, [Gary] Dumas added management of the planning,
>> building safety,
>> engineering and community resources and code compliance
>> divisions to his other
>> responsibilities of overseeing parking and
>> telecommunications, parks and
>> recreation, transportation, solid waste and fleet
>> operations.
>> [snip]
>> >
>> > --- On *Thu, 1/8/09, Linda Ralston
>> //* wrote:
>> >
>> > From: Linda Ralston
>> > Subject: RE: Honeymoon Over?
>> > To: "Northwest Arkansas List"
>> > Date: Thursday, January 8, 2009, 11:10 PM
>> >
>> > Gary...from my perspective, this pension fund has
>> had the potential
>> > for some time to become a much bigger issue
>> (probably like a lot of
>> > pension plans in the world). Pour on the fuel of
>> the
>> > recent financial downturn and it's really
>> knocking on the old door
>> > for attention. I got the impression that City
>> Attorney Kit Williams
>> > brought it to the forefront for the new
>> administration to address.
>> So I don't think it's been made into a big deal for
>> strategy
>> > finally just got priority delivered. No
>> fear intended or
>> > perceived.
>> > Since I was naive on the full definition of
>> cronyism, I just now
>> > looked it up. Part of the meaning is to show
>> "favoritism without
>> > regard to qualifications". I believe Don
>> Marr would do quite
>> well
>> > in this "new" director of operations
>> role, especially
>> because of the
>> > depth and breadth of his qualifications. So Gary,
>> do you know who
>> > the other applicants are, by chance? By the way,
>> I believe the
>> > "next level" of positive transformation
>> for Fayetteville is
>> only
>> > just beginning--it's got a ways to go before
>> anyone can call it
>> > complete, wouldn't you agree? To all
>> on the list: Get out
>> and enjoy one more warm and sunny day on
>> > Friday before the Arctic blast sends us back to
>> the deep freeze
>> > starting Saturday! with deep optimism for
>> the future of
>> Fayetteville, Linda
>> >
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > *From:*
>> > []*On Behalf
>> Of *Gary Ault
>> > *Sent:* Thursday, January 08, 2009 6:34 PM
>> > *To:* Northwest Arkansas List
>> > *Subject:* Re: Honeymoon Over?
>> >
>> > LOL
>> > Was the pension fund really a
>> surprise? Seems it's
>> been to the
>> > council every year for the past seven years.
>> Didn't Jordan
>> have
>> > a perfect attendance record?
>> > The plan was also closed in 1983.
>> Current employees are
>> in a
>> > different plan. Oh, and the fund isn't
>> controlled by the
>> city. It's controlled by an independent board.
>> Anyway, making a big deal about it is a good strategy.
>> Creating
>> > a high level of fear might take attention away
>> from the smell of
>> > cronyism. We all know the job is going to Don
>> Marr. Jordan now
>> > has his Chaney and is using fear as a tool to
>> maintain a level
>> > of control. The transformation is now
>> complete.
>> >
>> >
>> > --- On *Thu, 1/8/09, Jeff Erf
>> //* wrote:
>> >
>> > From: Jeff Erf
>> > Subject: Re: Honeymoon Over?
>> > To: "Northwest Arkansas List"
>> > Date: Thursday, January 8, 2009, 8:42 AM
>> >
>> > Gary Ault wrote:
>> > > The honeymoon may already be over for
>> Mayor Jordan.
>> > >
>> >
>> > I don't think so.
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >

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